Big media beats the blog drum

February 25, 2002 The traditional press (known in some circles as “old media”) is jumping on the blogger story, writing about and drafting bloggers. The time seems ripe to recap the coverage and to describe what makes the blog so threatening to media incumbents: timeliness, willingness to credit others, passion, blogrolling, human interest, chronology, and devotion.

Blogging, the practice of writing an online diary and news round up, has been touted as a potential competitor for mainstream press for a long time (including this blog on September 20 and October 5), but the tempo of the blog beat is rising.

On September 20, 2001 master linkster Nick Denton wrote in the The Guardian that post-September 11 weblogs were “uncovering a wealth of information, a variety of opinion, and a subtlety of judgment.” He concluded that “in weblogs, the web has become a mature medium.” On January 9, 2002 polymath blogger Glenn Reynolds warned that traditional media should “beware the people who are having fun competing with you!” in “A Technological Reformation.“

On January 17, blogs became important enough to be pilloried for self-congratulation and earnestness by former Suck.com funster Tim Cavanaugh in “Let slip the blogs of war.” On February 18, the Weekly Standard contributed a parody called “Blog ad nauseum,” suggesting that “those who don’t have a life are forced to invent one.” (Via www.NickDenton.org)

On February 5, PC Magazine offered a cynical list of factors driving people to write blogs: antidepersonalization, elimination of frustration, societal need to share, wanna-be writers.) In short, bloggers are vain.

Wired News offered a good and link-filled blogging review on February 18, which lead with the observation that “there’s perhaps no better proof that an idea has gained the attention of the mainstream than a mention on National Public Radio,” as had occured 5 days earlier.

On February 23, Canada’s National Post admitted that blogger Matt Drudge may be “responsible for a huge chunk of WashingtonPost.com’s traffic” but concluded “it’s doubtful that personal blogs will supplant newspapers anytime soon.” On February 24, The Times of London offered pundit-turned-blogger Andrew Sullivan’s take that bloggers threaten conventional media because they can “read the next day’s op-ed columns online the night before and get in pre-emptive rhetorical strikes before readers had even tackled the next day’s papers.” Most recently, on February 25, The New York Times served up a lukewarm answer to the question posed in its headline “Is Weblog Technology Here to Stay or Just Another Fad?”

Surveying this rash of articles, Meg Hourihan, co-founder of blog-tool Blogger, wrote yesterday that attempts to paint blogging as “just another Internet fad” ignore blogging’s viral vigor:

Previous Internet fads, which had all the longevity of a firecracker (the expectant hush, a boom and burst of light, and then nothing), included Portals, Vortals, Push, B2B, B2C, and the whole “dot-com” thing. But those fads emerged in a top-down fashion–they were created by marketers and analysts making big pronouncements because they had something to offer or gain by doing so. The weblog hype, for the most part, has come from the bottom up, from the people actually doing the weblogging.

As Hourihan notes, media incumbents aren’t just writing about blogs — “500,000 and rising fast!” — they are trying them on.

Publishers are stepping into the now-dust-filled footsteps of the Wall Street Journal‘s opinion page web section called “Best of the Web” which began in July of 2000. On February 12, the old-style new-media Salon incorporated a blog. On February 19, Fox News announced it was bringing “some of the web’s newest voices under its wing with the addition of the Fox Weblog.” Fox drafted martini-smooth Ken Layne to post a weekly weblog and enlisted other luminaries to join a rotation.

PC World assumed blogs aren’t read by anyone but their authors. (“People can’t resist updating the diary and apologize if they don’t do it—as if anyone really cares.”) But as I noted before, ur-blogger Matt Drudge’s single ugly web page often attracts more visits than traditional media web sites built and stocked by hundreds of staff. And anecdotal evidence suggests that some casual blogs get more traffic then web sites produced by decent-sized publishers.

So the more important question may be: what makes blogs so interesting to read — and such a potent threat to traditional media? Here are the qualities I would stress:

a) Timeliness and willingness to credit others. These two qualities go hand in hand. Because they are willing to post a link to the original news source, bloggers often convey the news hours before established outlets can commit resources to their own rehash and news top. (Note the domino effect of print-journalists “doing” blogger.) While traditional media avoid reporting anything “not invented here,” bloggers reveal (and revel in) the web’s vast resources through compulsive linking.

b) Passion. Written in the first person singular, blogs can convey a double-barrelled blast of the blogger’s emotions. This emotional richness — irony, elation, bitterness, tears, laughter, profanity, boredom, compulsiveness — has been bred out of corporate-funded journalism. In contrast, blogs feel like human expressions rather than corporate excretions.

c) Blogrolling. By regularly commending and linking to other blogger’s posts, bloggers weave new broadcast networks. (If you don’t own a network, invent your own!)

d) Human interest. Although newspapers sometimes peddle personal tidbits, these are more casing than sausage. In contrast, blogs often provide details from the writer’s life: missed flights, break-ups, rodents under the stove, computer meltdowns, muggings, tamale recipes.

e) Chronology. The blog’s diary-like stacking of events is easy to take for granted but may be a key virtue. Traditional publishers, scrambling daily to make room for cargo-loads of fresh-arriving news, shove their old product into fathomless database warehouses, from which it can be later extracted only with search equipment. I think the blog’s chronological news presentation fits better with innate human story-telling (aka information-processing) habits.

f) Devotion. Because bloggers get to write about what we care about — at whatever length and in whatever detail — we write with far more commitment than the average corporate scribe. Readers are equally devoted.

“We have entered an era vibrating with the din of small voices,” Drudge said in his 1998 speech to a sneering assembly of National Press Club members. As usual, Drudge was first with the story.

****

(For a technology-oriented history of blogs, visit Rebecca Blood’s history. Don’t miss Dave Winer’s first entry for a glimpse of what one of the web’s seminal tech bloggers posted on April 1, 1997. Don’t miss Jim Romesenko’s www.obscurestore.com. This thriving daily compendium of weird stories from newspaper web sites started in January 1998, foreshadowing much of today’s high-quality blogging done by moonlighting journalists. Finally, John Hiler’s blog is an excellent daily resource focused on micro-publishing strategies like blogging.)

Henry Copeland from Budapest, Hungary

Cannibalization? Au contraire!

February 8, 2002

Overview
 
The world’s first countrywide survey shows that local newspapers with websites have healthier print circulations than papers without sites.
 
While conventional wisdom suggests that newspaper web sites cannibalize print circulation, the analysis of circulation at 236 French newspapers shows no such effect. In fact, the typical French newspaper with a web site outperformed its siteless peers between 1999 and 2001, a period in which French Internet usage soared.
 
The French figures validate previous US newspaper readership surveys that have suggested that newspaper web sites generate significant marketing benefits. The market-wide analysis means that publishers with weak circulation can cross the Internet off their list of suspected culprits.
Download this file in .pdf version

Table of Contents 
 
Overview
Summary numbers
Analysis: how does a web site help print circulation?
Daily newspaper circulation performance 1999-2001
Weekly newspaper circulation performance 1999-2001
Context: French Internet usage
Conventional wisdom
Online features and circulation
Methodology
Conclusion
About Pressflex
 
Summary numbers
 
The 236 newspapers, all members of the French circulation audit association Diffusion Contrôle (www.ojd.com) recently released their circulation results for the first half of 2001.
 
Between 1999 and 2001, the average French regional daily newspaper without a web site lost 0.88% of its circulation. Newspapers with web sites did better than that, losing just 0.27% of their circulation over the same period.
 
The average weekly newspapers in France with a web site increased its circulation by 1.2% in the 1999-2001 period, versus an increase of 0.96% for the average weekly without a web site.
 
 
Table 1: Average newspaper circulation changes (=median) 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1999-2001 1999-2001
Daily with site -0,27% Weekly with site 1,20%
Daily without site -0,88% Weekly without site 0,96%

 
 
Analysis: how does a web site help print circulation?
 
1. Web sites provide substantial marketing benefits that overwhelm any print defections.
 
A newspaper’s web site, filled with content, can become a magnet for new visitors, effectively doubling the paper’s reach. A fully indexed web site of a small newspaper with a circulation of 10,000 copies can bring the paper an additional 10,000 web visitors a month. Traffic sources include:
 

     
     

  • Search engines: A weekly with only 10,000 in print circulation can win 3,500 referrals from search engines each month.
  •  
     

  • Links from other sites: Links to articles on a news site can provide free marketing, with small weeklies gaining up to 1,000 such visitors a month.
  •  
     

  • Web address publicity: A newspaper’s web address (www.papername.com) is easily promoted on billboards, bumper stickers, posters, and provides an easy point of access for newcomers to the community.
  •  
     

  • Scoops: Beating competitors with online summaries of breaking news items can boost the brand name of a weekly paper and increase its exposure.
  •  
     

 
As a magnet for new prospective readers, the site can become a new point of sale for the newspaper’s current subscriptions, special publications and prior issues. The significance of this revenue stream is expected to increase as micropayment technology becomes mainstream, Internet users become more comfortable making online payments, and the euro makes cross-border shopping more popular in Europe.
 
However, much still remains to be done to extract the full marketing potential of web sites, even in the U.S. An August 2001 study by the Finberg-Gentry, Digital Fruit Consultancy found that more than half of 100 American newspaper web sites surveyed bury the subscription link on their sites if they have it at all.1
 
2. The web taps potential readers untouched by traditional print sales channels.
 

     
     

  • Demographics: The typical web reader in Europe is still young, urban and tech savvy – and as such is currently less likely to read the printed edition of the newspaper. This “alternative” audience is not attached to the newspaper, but finds articles via search engines when looking for news on a particular topic.
  •  
     

  • Geography: A substantial flow of readers comes from outside the printed paper’s traditional circulation area – from another part of the country or from abroad.2
  •  
     

 
 
3. News consumption is habit-forming.
 
A newspaper site’s contribution to its community’s “news culture” increases the likelihood that people will buy a paper. A web site with forums, questionnaires, polls or even just an e-mail address can connect with the reader in new ways. Interactivity brings feedback, story ideas, letters to the editor, and local “buzz,” but also a higher level of engagement and loyalty from print readers. A U.S. survey3 last year of 15,657 visitors to eight newspaper-affiliated Web sites found that:
 

     
     

  • Among site visitors who read the print edition, 7 percent began their subscriptions after first visiting the site. That’s a net gain of 3 percentage points when compared to the 4 percent of combined print-online readers who ended their print subscriptions.
  •  
     

  • Single copy purchases faired even better, showing a net gain of 8 percentage points. Readership, rather than circulation, was the biggest winner, with a net of one in five in the combined print-online audience reporting that they were reading the print edition more since becoming visitors to the Web site.
  •  
     

 
 
4. Readers prefer paper to pixels
 
For most readers, the online experience is sufficiently different from print reading that web browsing is not a “replacement” for reading newsprint but rather a supplement. According to a 2000 study by the Newspaper Association of America, print newspapers are preferred over online for their ease of use.4
 
Daily newspaper circulation performance 1999-2001
 
Conventional wisdom notwithstanding, France’s 27 regional daily newspapers with web sites did better in the past two years than their 30 peers without web sites.
 
Regional daily newspapers without sites on average5 lost 1.5% of their circulation over the past two years. Newspapers with web sites did better than that, losing just 0.77% of their circulation between 1999 and 2001.
 
Considering how the “average newspaper” fared, by calculating the statistical median of the data, yields similar results. (Medians eliminate the effect of extreme cases and thus better reflect what happened to a typical group member.) Last year, for instance, the circulation of the average daily paper with a site grew 0.25% versus 0.14% for the average daily paper without a site.
 
 
Table 2: Daily newspaper circulation changes 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1999-2000 2000-2001 1999-2001
Average Median Average Median Average Median
Dailies with site -0.87% -0.28% 0.20% 0.25% -0.77% -0.27%
Dailies without site -1.56% -1.12% -0.14% 0.14% -1.50% -0.88%
All papers -1.18% -0.65% 0.02% 0.19% -1.15% -0.68%

 
 
Weekly newspaper circulation performance 1999-2001
 
Of France’s 179 audited weekly papers, just 19 have web sites. Weekly newspapers with sites increased their circulation less than their peers without web sites over the past two years – an average increase of 0.81% versus 1.34% since 1999, but increased their circulation more than their siteless peers between 2000 and 2001: 1.12% versus 1.01%. The average newspaper with a site, in terms of the median, outperformed its counterpart without a web site in both periods: growing 1.20% in circulation versus 0.96% for papers with no sites over the last two years.
 
 
Table 3: Weekly newspaper circulation changes 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1999-2000 2000-2001 1999-2001
Average Median Average Median Average Median
Weeklies with site -0.18% 0.01% 1.08% 1.12% 0.81% 1.20%
Weeklies without site 0.06% 0.05% 0.99% 1.01% 1.34% 0.96%
All weeklies 0.04% 0.05% 1.00% 1.02% 1.24% 1.01%

 
 
Context: French Internet usage
 
Although French Internet usage significantly lagged countries like the UK and Germany in the 1990s because of high telephone rates and low PC usage, French Internet usage accelerated in 2000 and has continued to rise. According to market research firm Netvalue, the number of people in France with home Internet access rose from 5.8 million in July 2000 (10% of population) to 10 million (16%) by September 2001. (Comparable Netvalue statistics for the UK are 16% and 26%.)6
 
Conventional wisdom
 
Many publishers instinctively see a web site as a competitor to the print edition. Why would readers pay for news if they can get if for free?
 
Internet research firms have stoked these fears: a 1997 study by Forrester Research projected that by 2001 newspapers would lose up to 14% of their circulation to the web.7
 
And when PCM Utigevers, the largest Dutch newspaper group, drastically cut its online operations in September 2001, it blamed the sites of its five national broadsheets for cannibalizing print subscriptions.8
 
Online features and circulation
 
Do particular web site features help or hurt print circulation?
 
The number of articles included on the site, searchable archives, polls, forums or e-mail newsletters on the web site does not show any correlation to changes in print circulation. The only feature with a possible impact on circulation growth is a print subscription form online.
 
Eight of the 19 regional dailies with web sites included a print subscription form on their sites. These papers did slightly better than papers with no sites or papers with web sites but no subscription form. The eight dailies saw their circulation over the last two years drop by just 0.09% on average, versus an industry average of a 0.96% decline. Weeklies with a subscription feature on their site increased circulation by 1.36% over the same period – more than papers without sites or papers with sites but no online subscription form.
 
Unfortunately for newspaper publishers, the data also indicate that for newspapers the web is not yet as important a marketing tool as for magazines – where web sites strongly contribute to print sales.9
 
Methodology
 
The 57 French daily and 179 weekly newspapers, all members of the French circulation audit association Diffusion Contrôle, recently published their circulation results for the first half of 2001.10
 
After calculating the circulation changes for each newspaper between 1999 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2001, Pressflex compared the performance of papers with sites to those without sites. To evaluate the effect of various online features on circulation, Pressflex also correlated the performance of sites relative to the amount of content online and features such as a poll, a forum, an e-mail newsletter and a print subscription form.
 
For the purposes of this analysis, the Sunday editions and/or various zoned editions of a daily newspaper were not counted. Also, when Diffusion Contrôle tracked the total circulation of a group as well as the circulation of the group’s individual titles, only the circulation of the members was taken into consideration. Newspapers whose web site consisted of only a single page with contact information were counted as papers without sites.
 
Conclusion
 
Online publishing poses no threat to a newspaper’s print circulation and may offer significant advantages. As common sense suggests, the inclusion of a print subscription feature online further boosts circulation performance… although too few paper’s take advantage of this obvious idea.
 
About Pressflex
 
Pressflex provides turnkey sites, consulting and seminars to Europe’s largest publishing groups. Based in Budapest, Hungary, Pressflex serves clients in the UK, France, Switzerland, Hungary and the United States.
 
 


 
1http://www.naa.org/TheDigitalEdge/DigArtPage.cfm?AID=1915
2While this latter trend is the most significant for English language papers, French newspapers using Pressflex’s web publishing service receive to 25% to 40% of their traffic from outside the country.
3Report by Borrell & Associates based on data from research firm Belden Associates and underwritten in part by the Newspaper Association of America. http://www.naa.org/TheDigitalEdge/DigArtPage.cfm?AID=2599
4http://www.digitaledge.org/monthly/2000_01/synergize.html
5To exclude anomalous data, the top and bottom 5% of newspapers have been left out in calculating the statistical mean (average) of newspaper circulation changes. Since the statistical median already excludes extreme cases by returning the middle value from among a set of numbers, the complete data set was used for median calculations.
6http://www.netvalue.com/fr/news/index_frame.htm?fichier=sommaire.htm
7http://www.nytimes.com/library/cyber/week/010697newspapers.html
8http://www.siliconvalley.com/docs/news/tech/060825.htm
9http://www.pressflex.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/18.html
10http://www.ojd.com/gb/basegb/body_resSousCat.asp?cat=1&catChoisi=QUOTIDIENS
 


 
 
For further information about this report as well as other research activities of Pressflex, please contact salesATpressflex.com or Miklos Gaspar at +36 1 328 0602.
 
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Cette enquête en français

frcircstudy





Cannibalization? Au contraire!


 

Overview.. 3

Summary numbers. 3

Analysis: how does a web site help print circulation?. 3

Daily newspaper circulation performance 1999-2001. 5

Weekly newspaper circulation performance 1999-2001. 6

Context: French Internet usage. 6

Conventional wisdom.. 6

Online features and circulation. 6

Methodology. 7

Conclusion. 7

About Pressflex. 7

 



 

Overview

 

The world’s
first countrywide survey shows that local newspapers with websites have healthier
print circulations than papers without sites.

 

While
conventional wisdom suggests that newspaper web sites cannibalize print
circulation, the analysis of circulation at 236 French newspapers shows no such
effect. In fact, the typical French newspaper with a web site outperformed its
siteless peers between 1999 and 2001, a period in which French Internet usage
soared. 

 

The French
figures validate previous US newspaper readership surveys that have suggested
that newspaper web sites generate significant marketing benefits. The
market-wide analysis means that publishers with weak circulation can cross the
Internet off their list of suspected culprits.

Summary numbers

 

The 236
newspapers, all members of the French circulation audit association Diffusion
Contrôle (www.ojd.com ) recently released
their circulation results for the first half of 2001.

 

Between
1999 and 2001, the average French regional daily newspaper without a web site
lost 0.88% of its circulation. Newspapers with web sites did better than that,
losing just 0.27% of their circulation over the same period. 

 

The average
weekly newspapers in France with a web site increased its circulation by 1.2%
in the 1999-2001 period, versus an increase of 0.96% for the average weekly
without a web site.

 

Table 1: Average newspaper
circulation changes (=median)

 

 

1999-2001

Dailies
with sites

-0,27%

Dailies
without sites

-0,88%

Weeklies
with sites

1,20%

Weeklies
without sites

0,96%

 

Analysis: how does a web site help print
circulation?

 

1.    
The
web taps potential readers untouched by traditional print sales channels.

 

·   
Demographics:
The typical web reader in Europe is still young, urban and tech savvy – and as
such is currently less likely to read the printed edition of the newspaper.
This “alternative” audience is not attached to the newspaper, but finds
articles via search engines when looking for news on a particular topic.

 

·   
Geography:
A substantial flow of readers comes from outside the printed paper’s traditional
circulation area – from another part of the country or from abroad. While this
latter trend is the most significant for English language papers, French
newspapers using Pressflex’s web publishing service receive to 25% to 40% of
their traffic from outside the country.

 

2.    
Web
sites provide substantial marketing benefits that overwhelm any print
defections.

 

A newspaper’s web site, filled with content,
can become a magnet for new visitors, effectively doubling the paper’s reach. A
fully indexed web site of a small newspaper with a circulation of 10,000 copies
can bring the paper an additional 10,000 web visitors a month.  Traffic sources include:

 

Ø    
Search
engines
: A weekly
with only 10,000 in print circulation can win 3,500 referrals from search
engines each month.

 

Ø    
Links
from other sites
:  Links to articles on a news site can provide
free marketing, with small weeklies gaining up to 1,000 such visitors a month.

 

Ø    
Web
address publicity
:
A newspaper’s web address (www.papername.com) is easily promoted on billboards,
bumper stickers, posters, and provides an easy point of access for newcomers to
the community.

 

Ø    
Scoops: Beating competitors with online
summaries of breaking news items can boost the brand name of a weekly paper and
increase its exposure.

 

As a magnet for new prospective readers, the
site can become a new point of sale for the newspaper’s current subscriptions,
special publications and prior issues. 
The significance of this revenue stream is expected to increase as
micropayment technology becomes mainstream, Internet users become more
comfortable making online payments, and 
the euro makes cross-border shopping more popular in Europe.

 

However, much still remains to be done to
extract the full marketing potential of web sites, even in the U.S. An August
2001 study by the Finberg-Gentry, Digital Fruit Consultancy found that more
than half of 100 American newspaper web sites surveyed bury the subscription
link on their sites if they have it at all. [1]

 

 

3.    
News consumption is habit-forming.

 

A newspaper site’s contribution to its community’s
“news culture” increases the likelihood that people will buy a paper. A web site with forums,
questionnaires, polls or even just an e-mail address can connect with the
reader in new ways. Interactivity brings feedback, story ideas, letters to the
editor, and local “buzz,” but also a higher level of engagement and loyalty
from print readers.
A U.S. survey[2]
last year of 15,657 visitors to eight newspaper-affiliated Web sites found
that:

·       Among
site visitors who read the print edition, 7 percent began their subscriptions
after first visiting the site. That’s a net gain of 3 percentage points when
compared to the 4 percent of combined print-online readers who ended their
print subscriptions. 

·       Single
copy purchases faired even better, showing a net gain of 8 percentage points.
Readership, rather than circulation, was the biggest winner, with a net of one
in five in the combined print-online audience reporting that they were reading
the print edition more since becoming visitors to the Web site.

 

4. Readers prefer paper to
pixels

 

For
most readers, the online experience is sufficiently different from print
reading that web browsing is not a “replacement” for reading newsprint but
rather a supplement. According to a 2000 study by the Newspaper Association of
America, print newspapers are preferred over online for their ease of use.[3]

 

 

Daily newspaper circulation performance
1999-2001

 

Conventional
wisdom notwithstanding, France’s 27 regional daily newspapers with web sites
did better in the past two years than their 30 peers without web sites.

 

Regional
daily newspapers without sites on average[4]
lost 1.5% of their circulation over the past two years. Newspapers with web
sites did better than that, losing just 0.77% of their circulation between 1999
and 2001. 

 

Considering
how the “average newspaper” fared, by calculating the statistical median of the
data, yields similar results. (Medians eliminate the effect of extreme cases
and thus better reflect what happened to a typical group member.) Last year,
for instance, the circulation of the average daily paper with a site grew 0.25%
versus 0.14% for the average daily paper without a site.

 

Table 2: Daily newspaper circulation
changes

 

 

1999-2000

 

2000-2001

 

1999-2001

 

 

Average

Median

Average

Median

Average

Median

Dailies
with site

-0.87%

-0.28%

0.20%

0.25%

-0.77%

-0.27%

Dailies
without site

-1.56%

-1.12%

-0.14%

0.14%

-1.50%

-0.88%

All
papers

-1.18%

-0.65%

0.02%

0.19%

-1.15%

-0.68%

 

Weekly newspaper circulation performance
1999-2001

 

Of France’s
179 audited weekly papers, just 19 have web sites. Weekly newspapers with sites
increased their circulation less than their peers without web sites over the
past two years – an average increase of 0.81% versus 1.34% since 1999, but
increased their circulation more than their siteless peers between 2000 and
2001: 1.12% versus 1.01%. The average newspaper with a site, in terms of the
median, outperformed its counterpart without a web site in both periods:
growing 1.20% in circulation versus 0.96% for papers with no sites over the
last two years.

 

Table 3: Weekly newspaper
circulation changes

 

 

1999-2000

 

2000-2001

 

1999-2001

 

 

Average

Median

Average

Median

Average

Median

Weeklies
with sites

-0.18%

0.01%

1.08%

1.12%

0.81%

1.20%

Weeklies
without site

0.06%

0.05%

0.99%

1.01%

1.34%

0.96%

All
weeklies

0.04%

0.05%

1.00%

1.02%

1.24%

1.01%

 

Context: French Internet usage

 

Although
French Internet usage significantly lagged countries like the UK and Germany in
the 1990s because of high telephone rates and low PC usage, French Internet
usage accelerated in 2000 and has continued to rise. According to market
research firm Netvalue, the number of people in France with home Internet
access rose from 5.8 million in July 2000 (10% of population) to 10 million
(16%) by September 2001. (Comparable Netvalue statistics for the UK are 16% and
26%.) [5]

 

 

Conventional wisdom

 

Many
publishers instinctively see a web site as a competitor to the print edition.
Why would readers pay for news if they can get if for free? 

 

Internet
research firms have stoked these fears: a 1997 study by Forrester Research
projected that by 2001 newspapers would lose up to 14% of their circulation to
the web.[6]

 

And when
PCM Utigevers, the largest Dutch newspaper group, drastically cut its online
operations in September 2001, it blamed the sites of its five national
broadsheets for cannibalizing print subscriptions.[7]

Online features and circulation

 

Do
particular web site features help or hurt print circulation?

 

The number
of articles included on the site, searchable archives, polls, forums or e-mail
newsletters on the web site does not show any correlation to changes in print
circulation. The only feature with a possible impact on circulation growth is a
print subscription form online. 

 

Eight of
the 19 regional dailies with web sites included a print subscription form on
their sites. These papers did slightly better than papers with no sites or
papers with web sites but no subscription form. The eight dailies saw their
circulation over the last two years drop by just 0.09% on average, versus an
industry average of a 0.96% decline. Weeklies with a subscription feature on
their site increased circulation by 1.36% over the same period – more than
papers without sites or papers with sites but no online subscription form.

 

Unfortunately
for newspaper publishers, the data also indicate that for newspapers the web is
not yet as important a marketing tool as for magazines – where web sites
strongly contribute to print sales.[8]

 

Methodology

 

The 57
French daily and 179 weekly newspapers, all members of the French circulation
audit association Diffusion Contrôle, recently published their circulation
results for the first half of 2001.[9]

 

After
calculating the circulation changes for each newspaper between 1999 and 2000
and between 2000 and 2001, Pressflex compared the performance of papers with
sites to those without sites. To evaluate the effect of various online features
on circulation, Pressflex also correlated the performance of sites relative to
the amount of content online and features such as a poll, a forum, an e-mail
newsletter and a print subscription form.

 

For the
purposes of this analysis, the Sunday editions and/or various zoned editions of
a daily newspaper were not counted. 
Also, when Diffusion Contrôle tracked the total circulation of a group
as well as the circulation of the group’s individual titles, only the
circulation of the members was taken into consideration. Newspapers whose web
site consisted of only a single page with contact information were counted as
papers without sites.

Conclusion

 

Online publishing poses no threat to a newspaper’s print circulation and
may offer significant advantages.  As
common sense suggests, the inclusion of a print subscription feature online further
boosts circulation performance… although too few paper’s take advantage of this
obvious idea.

About Pressflex

Pressflex provides turnkey
sites, consulting and seminars to Europe’s largest publishing groups. Based in
Budapest, Hungary, Pressflex serves clients in the UK, France, Switzerland,
Hungary and the United States.

For
further information about this report as well as other research activities of
Pressflex, please contact consulting@pressflex.com
or Miklos Gaspar at
+36 1 328 0602.



[2] Report by Borrell &
Associates
based on data from research firm Belden
Associates
and underwritten in part by the Newspaper Association of
America.  http://www.naa.org/TheDigitalEdge/DigArtPage.cfm?AID=2599

[4] To exclude
anomalous data, the top and bottom 5% of newspapers have been left out in
calculating the statistical mean (average) of newspaper circulation changes.
Since the statistical median already excludes extreme cases by returning the
middle value from among a set of numbers, the complete data set was used for
median calculations.